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美国经济学家

2008年诺贝尔经济学奖得主。 美國經濟學家及紐約時報的專欄作家,普林斯頓大學經濟系教授,是新凱恩斯主義经济学派代表。1953年出生美國紐約,约翰·F·肯尼迪高中毕业。1974年就讀耶鲁大學,1977年在麻省理工學院取得博士學位,受到经济学家诺德豪斯的注意。畢業後先後於耶鲁大学、麻省理工及史丹福大學任教。2000年起,成為普林斯頓大學經濟系教授。

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再论后现代式复苏  

2009-08-02 14:32:13|  分类: 默认分类 |  标签: |举报 |字号 订阅

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Postmodern recessions

钱老大[]

Eugene Chen [校]

 

Calculated Risk says much of what I’d say about housing and the prospects for quick economic recovery. But I’d like to offer a bit more analysis.

Calculated Risk这位网友1,关于房地产市场和经济快速复苏前景的讨论,很多都是我要说的。但是,我还想再加一点分析进来。

A lot of what we think we know about recession and recovery comes from the experience of the 70s and 80s. But the recessions of that era were very different from the recessions since. Each of the slumps — 1969-70, 1973-75, and the double-dip slump from 1979 to 1982 — were caused, basically, by high interest rates imposed by the Fed to control inflation. In each case housing tanked, then bounced back when interest rates were allowed to fall again.

关于衰退和复苏,我们心中所存的大量观念,都来自于上世纪七八十年代的经验。但是,那个时代的衰退,与此后时代的衰退,迥然不同。那个时候,每一次经济下滑(1969-701973-75,以及1979-1982年间的双谷下滑),基本上都源于美联储在控制通胀时所执行的高利率政策。在这些衰退中,房地产缩水,然后随着利率的再次降低而反弹。

Since the mid 1980s, however, we’ve had the “Great Moderation,” with inflation quiescent. Post-moderation recessions haven’t been deliberately engineered by the Fed, they just happen when credit bubbles or other things get out of hand.

然而,自1980年代中期之后,我们进入了“大稳健时代”2,通胀静止不动。后现代式衰退,不是美联储有意导引所致,而是因为信用泡沫或其它因素失控所致。

And while they haven’t been as deep as the older type of recession, they’ve proved hard to end (not officially, but in terms of employment), precisely because housing — which is the main thing that responds to monetary policy — has to rise above normal levels rather than recover from an interest-imposed slump.

而且,尽管衰退还没有达到上一种衰退的深度,但是,却已证明了难说结束3。(所谓结束,不是指“官方认定”,而是从就业的角度来说的),这完全是因为房地产这种对货币政策敏感的主要产业,必须上升到一般水平以上,而不只是从利率所引致的某次经济下滑中恢复。

That’s why I think our current problems will last a long time. CR says 2009; I say 2010.

这就是我认为当前危机会持续很长时间的理由。CR网友说在2009年结束;我说是2010

再论后现代式复苏 - 保罗·克鲁格曼 - 保罗·克鲁格曼 中文博客

(阴影部分是NBER所确定的美国经济衰退)

Recessions then and now

这几次衰退




注释

 

1CR网友的主要观点。房地产不仅是经常导致经济衰退的原因,而且经常是经济摆脱衰退的复苏引擎。(But here is a key point: not only does housing usually lead the economy into recession, but housing is usually an engine for recovery as the economy emerges from recession.

 

2大稳健时代。指产出和通胀的波动性出现巨幅下降,趋于平稳。这个词偶见于一些极不严谨的中文股评文章。维基中给出一个解释。同时,我们收录了Bernanke的理论解释。

Wiki解释

大稳健时代,有时用于描述“经济动荡的公认的结束(该动荡因21新世纪的银行体系所致)”。这个名词是哈佛经济学家James Stock所提出的。这个概念提出的“永久变化”观念,其合理性受到了2008经济危机和2007-2008经济危机的质疑。

Wiki term

The Great Moderation was a phrase sometimes used to describe the perceived end to economic volatility created by the new 21st century banking systems.[1] The term was coined by Harvard economist James Stock.[2] The validity of this concept as a permanent shift has been questioned by the economic crisis of 2008 and the financial crisis of 2007-2008.[3]

伯南克2004演讲

 

在过去二十年左右,整体经济表现出一种最惊人的特征,那就是宏观经济的动荡性急剧地下降。Olivier BlanchardJohn Simon(2001)的最新文章中,指出:真实产出的季度增长的变化(用它的标准差来测定),自1980年代中期起,就已下降了一半,而通胀的季度变化,也已下降了大约三分之二。有一些研究此问题的研究人员,将产出和通胀的变化的巨幅下降,称为“大稳健”。差不多在其它主要工业国家的这段时间里,产出和通胀的波动性,也出现了相似的下降。日本是当前的一个例外,它在过去十年中,出现了明显不同的各种经济问题。

 

Remarks by Governor Ben S. Bernanke

 

One of the most striking features of the economic landscape over the past twenty years or so has been a substantial decline in macroeconomic volatility. In a recent article, Olivier Blanchard and John Simon (2001) documented that the variability of quarterly growth in real output (as measured by its standard deviation) has declined by half since the mid-1980s, while the variability of quarterly inflation has declined by about two thirds.1 Several writers on the topic have dubbed this remarkable decline in the variability of both output and inflation "the Great Moderation." Similar declines in the volatility of output and inflation occurred at about the same time in other major industrial countries, with the recent exception of Japan, a country that has faced a distinctive set of economic problems in the past decade.


3. while 这里不是“如果”, 而是“尽管”, 相当于although.(Eugene, 8月2日)


编辑手记

* 修正了译文中的一处误译。(8月2日)

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