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2008年诺贝尔经济学奖得主。 美國經濟學家及紐約時報的專欄作家,普林斯頓大學經濟系教授,是新凱恩斯主義经济学派代表。1953年出生美國紐約,约翰·F·肯尼迪高中毕业。1974年就讀耶鲁大學,1977年在麻省理工學院取得博士學位,受到经济学家诺德豪斯的注意。畢業後先後於耶鲁大学、麻省理工及史丹福大學任教。2000年起,成為普林斯頓大學經濟系教授。

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谁误解了李嘉图等价?(待译)  

2009-05-02 21:50:49|  分类: 默认分类 |  标签: |举报 |字号 订阅

  下载LOFTER 我的照片书  |
April 6, 2009, 7:19 pm

One more time

Brad DeLong is, rightly, horrified at the great Ricardian equivalence misunderstanding.It’s one thing to have an argument about whether consumers areperfectly rational and have perfect access to the capital markets; it’sanother to have the big advocates of all that perfection not understand the implications of their own model.

So let me try this one more time.

Here’s what we agree on: if consumers have perfect foresight, liveforever, have perfect access to capital markets, etc., then they willtake into account the expected future burden of taxes to pay forgovernment spending. If the government introduces a new program thatwill spend $100 billion a year forever, then taxes must ultimately goup by the present-value equivalent of $100 billion forever. Assume thatconsumers want to reduce consumption by the same amount every year tooffset this tax burden; then consumer spending will fall by $100billion per year to compensate, wiping out any expansionary effect ofthe government spending.

But suppose that the increase in government spending is temporary,not permanent — that it will increase spending by $100 billion per yearfor only 1 or 2 years, not forever. This clearly implies a lower futuretax burden than $100 billion a year forever, and therefore implies afall in consumer spending of less than $100 billion per year. So the spending program IS expansionary in this case, EVEN IF you have full Ricardian equivalence.

Is that explanation clear enough to get through? Is there anybody out there?

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