注册 登录  
 加关注
   显示下一条  |  关闭
温馨提示!由于新浪微博认证机制调整,您的新浪微博帐号绑定已过期,请重新绑定!立即重新绑定新浪微博》  |  关闭

保罗·克鲁格曼 中文博客

授权网易博客进行中文翻译并推广

 
 
 

日志

 
 
关于我

美国经济学家

2008年诺贝尔经济学奖得主。 美國經濟學家及紐約時報的專欄作家,普林斯頓大學經濟系教授,是新凱恩斯主義经济学派代表。1953年出生美國紐約,约翰·F·肯尼迪高中毕业。1974年就讀耶鲁大學,1977年在麻省理工學院取得博士學位,受到经济学家诺德豪斯的注意。畢業後先後於耶鲁大学、麻省理工及史丹福大學任教。2000年起,成為普林斯頓大學經濟系教授。

文章分类
网易考拉推荐

复苏的迹象与希望的曙光(1 )  

2009-05-28 17:12:47|  分类: 默认分类 |  标签: |举报 |字号 订阅

  下载LOFTER 我的照片书  |

 简介:

      克鲁格曼认为,面对严重的经济衰退,最大的政策危机就是过早乐观 。                                  

                                            Green Shoots and Glimmers

                                              复苏的迹象与希望的曙光

                                                By PAUL KRUGMAN

 

Ben Bernanke, the Federal Reserve chairman, sees “green shoots.” President Obama sees “glimmers of hope.” And the stock market has been on a tear.

 美联储主席伯南克看到了“复苏的迹象”。奥巴马总统也看到“希望的曙光”。股市更是连续上涨。

So is it time to sound the all clear? Here are four reasons to be cautious about the economic outlook.

这么说到了解除警报的时候了?以下是我对经济前景仍需持谨慎态度的四个方面理由。

1. Things are still getting worse. Industrial production just hit a 10-year low. Housing starts remain incredibly weak. Foreclosures, which dipped as mortgage companies waited for details of the Obama administration’s housing plans, are surging again.

1. 情况还在恶化。工业生产刚刚到达10年最低点。住房项目启动难以置信地疲软。前段时间抵押公司在等待奥巴马政府住房计划细节时,银行房屋没收案曾有所减少,现在又出现大幅上升。

The most you can say is that there are scattered signs that things are getting worse more slowly — that the economy isn’t plunging quite as fast as it was. And I do mean scattered: the latest edition of the Beige Book, the Fed’s periodic survey of business conditions, reports that “five of the twelve Districts noted a moderation in the pace of decline.” Whoopee.

您最多可以说现在有了一些零散的迹象,表明经济形势恶化的速度在放慢,不像前段时间那样快速下跌了。我说的只是零散的迹象:美联储最近一期有关商业形势的定期研究报告黄皮书报道,“12个地区中发现5个地区衰退放缓的迹象。”好啊!

2. Some of the good news isn’t convincing. The biggest positive news in recent days has come from banks, which have been announcing surprisingly good earnings. But some of those earnings reports look a little ... funny.

2. 有些好消息令人难以信服。近日来最大的好消息来自银行。银行一直在宣布取得令人意外的好收益,但是这些收益报告看上去有点滑稽。

Wells Fargo, for example, announced its best quarterly earnings ever. But a bank’s reported earnings aren’t a hard number, like sales; for example, they depend a lot on the amount the bank sets aside to cover expected future losses on its loans. And some analysts expressed considerable doubt about Wells Fargo’s assumptions, as well as other accounting issues.

例如:富国银行宣布取得了历年来最好的季度收益。不过,银行报告的收益像销售额一样,一般不是刚性数字,很大程度上取决于,该银行为弥补其贷款预计未来损失而预留的金额。有分析家对富国银行设想的数额,以及其它会计问题表示很大的怀疑。

Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs announced a huge jump in profits from fourth-quarter 2008 to first-quarter 2009. But as analysts quickly noticed, Goldman changed its definition of “quarter” (in response to a change in its legal status), so that — I kid you not — the month of December, which happened to be a bad one for the bank, disappeared from this comparison.

与此同时,高盛投资也宣布,其利润从2008年第四季度到今年第一季度大幅上升。但是分析人士很快注意到,高盛改变了其对“季度”的定义(对应其法定地位的变化),这样12月份,恰逢该银行表现很差的月份,从比较报告中销声匿迹了。我可不跟你开玩笑。

I don’t want to go overboard here. Maybe the banks really have swung from deep losses to hefty profits in record time. But skepticism comes naturally in this age of Madoff.

我不想危言耸听。也许银行真的在最短时间内,从严重亏损转变到利润可观了。但在这个麦道夫的时代,自然引人怀疑。

Oh, and for those expecting the Treasury Department’s “stress tests” to make everything clear: the White House spokesman, Robert Gibbs, says that “you will see in a systematic and coordinated way the transparency of determining and showing to all involved some of the results of these stress tests.” No, I don’t know what that means, either.

是呀,还有对于那些指望财政部的“应力测试”将一切弄的一清二楚的。白宫发言人罗伯特 吉波斯说“可以从系统、协调的角度看出,确定并向大家公布的透明度涉及这些应力测试的部分结果。”我也不知道说的是什么意思。

 

  评论这张
 
阅读(157)| 评论(0)
推荐 转载

历史上的今天

评论

<#--最新日志,群博日志--> <#--推荐日志--> <#--引用记录--> <#--博主推荐--> <#--随机阅读--> <#--首页推荐--> <#--历史上的今天--> <#--被推荐日志--> <#--上一篇,下一篇--> <#-- 热度 --> <#-- 网易新闻广告 --> <#--右边模块结构--> <#--评论模块结构--> <#--引用模块结构--> <#--博主发起的投票-->
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

页脚

网易公司版权所有 ©1997-2017