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2008年诺贝尔经济学奖得主。 美國經濟學家及紐約時報的專欄作家,普林斯頓大學經濟系教授,是新凱恩斯主義经济学派代表。1953年出生美國紐約,约翰·F·肯尼迪高中毕业。1974年就讀耶鲁大學,1977年在麻省理工學院取得博士學位,受到经济学家诺德豪斯的注意。畢業後先後於耶鲁大学、麻省理工及史丹福大學任教。2000年起,成為普林斯頓大學經濟系教授。

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克鲁格曼:在危难的边缘(1 )  

2009-06-02 11:20:47|  分类: 默认分类 |  标签: |举报 |字号 订阅

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   简介:

         克鲁格曼指出, 如果政府不采取行动,经济将走向深入的长期萧条。美国可能会就此掉入经济衰退的深渊,如果这样的话,将很难再次摆脱困境。                                               

                                                   On the Edge

                                                      在危难边缘

 

A not-so-funny thing happened on the way to economic recovery. Over the last two weeks, what should have been a deadly serious debate about how to save an economy in desperate straits turned, instead, into hackneyed political theater, with Republicans spouting all the old clichés about wasteful government spending and the wonders of tax cuts.

在经济复苏的道路上,发生了一件不太有趣的事儿。过去的两周内,一场本该是如何挽救,处于绝望困境中的经济的严肃辩论,反而变成了陈词滥调的政治闹剧。共和党人喋喋不休地重复着那些,关于浪费政府开支和质疑减税的老生常谈。

It’s as if the dismal economic failure of the last eight years never happened — yet Democrats have, incredibly, been on the defensive. Even if a major stimulus bill does pass the Senate, there’s a real risk that important parts of the original plan, especially aid to state and local governments, will have beend.

这看上去,就好像黯淡的经济在过去八年里从未发生。令人难以置信的是,民主党一直处于守势。即便是参议院,最终通过了这个重要的经济刺激法案,原始计划的重要部分,特别是,那些援助国家和地方政府的部分,将会有被删除的风险。

Somehow, Washington has lost any sense of what’s at stake — of the reality that we may well be falling into an economic abyss, and that if we do, it will be very hard to get out again.

不知何故,华盛顿当局已然失去对事关重大的感知。他们没有意识到这样一个现实,美国可能会就此掉入经济衰退的深渊,如果这样的话,我们将很难再次摆脱困境。

It’s hard to exaggerate how much economic trouble we’re in. The crisis began with housing, but the implosion of the Bush-era housing bubble has set economic dominoes falling not just in the United States, but around the world.

很难再夸大我们面对的经济问题有多大。这场危机始于房地产问题,但是,布什时代房地产泡沫的破灭的多米洛骨牌效应,不仅波及美国,还有全世界各地。

Consumers, their wealth decimated and their optimism shattered by collapsing home prices and a sliding stock market, have cut back their spending and sharply increased their saving — a good thing in the long run, but a huge blow to the economy right now. Developers of commercial real estate, watching rents fall and financing costs soar, are slashing their investment plans. Businesses are canceling plans to expand capacity, since they aren’t selling enough to use the capacity they have. And exports, which were one of the U.S. economy’s few areas of strength over the past couple of years, are now plunging as the financial crisis hits our trading partners.

崩溃的房价和塌陷的股市,粉碎了消费者的财富和乐观态度。他们开始节约开支,快速地增加他们的储蓄。这在长远来说是件好事,但是对当下的经济是个巨大的打击。面对租金下跌和融资成本剧增,商业房地产开发商,正在削减他们的投资计划。因为没有足够的销售额,企业取消了他们的扩容计划。出口,作为过去几年内美国经济仅存的强项之一,也因为金融危机打击了我们的贸易伙伴而出现暴跌。

Meanwhile, our main line of defense against recessions — the Federal Reserve’s usual ability to support the economy by cutting interest rates — has already been overrun. The Fed has cut the rates it controls basically to zero, yet the economy is still in free fall.

同时,美联储降低利率来托高经济,作为我们对抗经济衰退的主要途径,已经超越极限。美联储目前已经基本上将其控制的利率削减到零了,但经济仍然如自由落体般下滑。

It’s no wonder, then, that most economic forecasts warn that in the absence of government action we’re headed for a deep, prolonged slump. Some private analysts predict double-digit unemployment. The Congressional Budget Office is slightly more sanguine, but its director, nonetheless, recently warned that “absent a change in fiscal policy ... the shortfall in the nation’s output relative to potential levels will be the largest — in duration and depth — since the Depression of the 1930s.”

那么,难怪那么多经济预测人士警告说,如果政府不采取行动,我们将走向深入的长期萧条。一些个人分析师预测失业率将会达到两位数。相比之下,美国国会预算局稍显乐观,尽管如此,该局负责人近日警告称:“如果没有改变财政政策,国家的输出和潜在水平间的短缺,无论从时间和深度,都将是30年代大萧条以来最大的。”

 

 

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