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美国经济学家

2008年诺贝尔经济学奖得主。 美國經濟學家及紐約時報的專欄作家,普林斯頓大學經濟系教授,是新凱恩斯主義经济学派代表。1953年出生美國紐約,约翰·F·肯尼迪高中毕业。1974年就讀耶鲁大學,1977年在麻省理工學院取得博士學位,受到经济学家诺德豪斯的注意。畢業後先後於耶鲁大学、麻省理工及史丹福大學任教。2000年起,成為普林斯頓大學經濟系教授。

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the stagflation myth——滞胀的神话(待译)  

2009-06-16 18:18:45|  分类: 默认分类 |  标签: |举报 |字号 订阅

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                                          The stagflation myth

                                      滞胀的神话

Via Dean Baker, Robert Samuelson declares — as a simple fact — that

Johnson’s economic policies, inherited from Kennedy, proved disastrous; they led to the 1970s’ “stagflation.”

Wow. I didn’t know that. Neither, as far as I know, did any economist who has actually studied the issue.

Seriously, this is a standard bit of conservative propaganda. Ever since Reagan, conservatives have been using the evils of stagflation to denounce liberal economic policies. Yet mainstream economics — even at Chicago — has never made that connection.

Stagflation was a term coined by Paul Samuelson to describe the combination of high inflation and high unemployment. The era of stagflation in America began in 1974 and ended in the early 80s. Why did it happen?

Well, the textbooks basically invoke two factors. One was a series of “adverse supply shocks”, mainly the huge runup in the price of oil. The other was excessively expansionary monetary policy, especially in 1972-3, which allowed expectations of inflation to become entrenched. (Ken Rogoff — a Republican, by the way — attributes that expansion to the desire of Arthur Burns to see Richard Nixon reelected.)

The appearance of stagflation was a win for conservative economics, but it was conservative monetary economics that was partly vindicated: Milton Friedman’s assertion that there is no long-run tradeoff between inflation and unemployment turned out to be correct, and is now part of the standard canon.

But where is the Great Society in all this? Nowhere. The claim that stagflation proved the badness of liberal ideas is pure propaganda, which not even conservative economists believe.

PS: all this comes in the middle of a column whining about favorable press treatment of Obama. Did Samuelson complain equally about the loving treatment Bush received for several years after 9/11? Somehow I don’t remember that …

                                                  

                                                    June 14, 2009, 5:23 am

                       Stimulus history lesson

                                                    刺激政策的历史教训

Republicans are pronouncing Obama’s stimulus a failure:

“Today’s announcement is an acknowledgement that the Democrats’ trillion-dollar stimulus is not working, and the American people know it,” House Minority Leader John Boehner said in a statement.

“When they passed this spending plan, Democrats said it would immediately create jobs, yet nearly four months later unemployment has continued to climb and none of their rosy predictions have come true.”

Just sayin’:

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